The 30-Second Mind

An interesting 8 qns proposed by ChatGPT to achieve the same 30 second mind as the great late Charlie Munger:

1. What is the actual problem?
   Strip away symptoms, wording, and noise. What are we really trying to solve?

2. What must be true?
   What assumptions does my conclusion depend on? Which ones are facts vs guesses?

3. What are the incentives?
   Who benefits from what? What behaviour do those incentives predict?

4. What usually happens?
   Ignore the story for a moment. What does the base rate / reference class say?

5. What is the dominant variable?
   Of everything going on, what 1–2 factors actually determine the outcome?

6. How could this fail?
   Invert the problem. Look for ruin, hidden risks, weak links, and ways you’re wrong.

7. And then what?
   Follow the consequences another 1–2 steps. Second-order effects often reverse the obvious answer.

8. Compared with what?
   Every decision has an opportunity cost. Is this actually better than the next-best alternative?